Evaluation of logistic versus linear regression models for predicting pulmonary hypertension syndrome (ascites) using cold exposure or pulmonary artery clamp models in broilers

Department of Poultry Science, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville 72701, USA.

Syndromes such as ascites (pulmonary hypertension syndrome) present difficulties both in the interpretation of associated physiological observations and in their analyses. The ability to predict which physiological variables have the greatest influence on survival or, more importantly, which individuals are most susceptible or resistant to ascites would be very useful selection tools. When addressed in this manner, ascites data become binary data sets (healthy or affected). Binary data can be problematic in that they do not meet all of the assumptions necessary for more traditional analyses such as ANOVA and linear regression. Binary data are discrete and do not have normally distributed errors, which violates a fundamental assumption of linear models. The predictive abilities of linear and logistic regression were evaluated in two replicated experiments using two methods to induce ascites, cold exposure (COLD) and surgical clamping of one pulmonary artery (PAC). The logistic and linear predictive models were derived using the same data and variables. The first data set from PAC and COLD were used to develop the predictive models and the replicate data sets of PAC and COLD were used as "test data sets" for the prediction of ascites. The linear models developed were complex, using four or five variables and requiring up to seven different measurements. On average, the linear models predicted ascites correctly 87.6% of the time. The logistic models were simple (single variable) models that predicted ascites correctly 92.0% of the time. The variables used in the logistic models were derivations of the ratio of right ventricular weight to total ventricular weight, either corrected for age or the body weight of the bird. Although linear regression predicted the incidence of ascites almost as well as logistic regression did, logistic regression is the more appropriate test statistic to use.

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